At Trellis Strategies, we work extensively to help colleges navigate the complex world of student enrollment, from research on trends to technical assistance in goal setting and operations. Managing enrollment requires balancing the retention of enrolled students and the addition of new students with a realistic understanding of your market position.
College Admission Historically
Adding new students, or admissions, needs a fresh approach in today’s higher education environment. For years, admissions functioned with relative ease. Student enrollments increased organically at American colleges and universities, with an upward trend starting after WWII and continuing until 2010. This growth stemmed from a robust population of college-aged students, a national college-going campaign, and expanded federal student aid access.
Colleges could rely on a steady flow of applicants, with many institutions admitting most applicants, and anticipate predictable yields. Colleges that wished to grow did so by increasing recruitment efforts, as the pool of students was abundant. The yield rate remained stable without noticeable changes.
The problem now is that the pipeline of traditional-aged college students is dwindling. According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, which tracks high school graduation trends nationally, the population of traditional-aged students will peak in 2025 and then decline for 16 years until rebounding in 2041. The decline will not be the same in every region, but generally, this issue, commonly called the “cliff” in college enrollment circles, means recruiting more students is becoming significantly harder. This means expecting the college to grow (or even stay the same) with the same yield is unrealistic.
On top of that, the percentage of high school graduates who matriculate to college has dropped from 69% in 2018 to 62% in 2022, compounding the challenge – fewer high school graduates and a declining college-going rate.
The Issues Facing Application Completion in Higher Education
However, opportunities exist to address this challenge. It’s time to take a closer look at yield and identify strategies for improvement.
Yield is the number of admitted students who enroll. The median yield rate stands at 27.48% for public four-year institutions and 23.89% for private four-year institutions (per an analysis of IPEDS Fall 2023 admission data). Community colleges tend to admit most applicants, so the percentage of all applicants who enroll is a key metric. For community colleges, Trellis sources and other published metrics typically show a 40 – 50 % conversion rate.).
This means the majority of accepted students do not matriculate. Some may go to competitor institutions, but not always. Many applicants for open-enrollment institutions or those serving traditionally underserved populations submit applications to only one or a few colleges. If these students fail to enroll, they may not attend college anywhere.
When students apply to college, they are signaling interest. They are saying, at a minimum, “I’m interested.” Even if they apply as part of a high school assignment, they still demonstrate potential interest for colleges to act upon.
That’s where colleges need to turn their attention today. If an institution’s yield is below the median, it’s a good time to ask, “What more do we need to do?” Rather than relying exclusively on recruitment to increase applications, a strategy that may not be viable, colleges should prioritize guiding every applicant through the enrollment process. With population declines and fewer students choosing college, a higher yield is an essential strategy.
Admissions is a step-by-step process. The first step after applying is nearly always submitting a high school transcript. Students cannot proceed to subsequent steps such as financial aid, advising, or registration until they complete this initial requirement. Colleges need to improve conversion rates at every stage in this process: from applicant to complete applicant, from advised student to registered student. Every percentage increase between stages increases the yield.
Too often, however, colleges concentrate solely on the total number of applicants and the final enrollment figure. This limited focus often leads to a diminished yield and a lack of targeted interventions to increase enrollment. Schools should monitor and optimize conversion rates at each step to improve outcomes.
Colleges cannot expect students to move through the enrollment process on their own. While checklists or step-by-step guides may be helpful, they are not enough. The institution must track each student and make sure each student is progressing step by step. When they aren’t progressing, the institution needs to intervene by providing reminders, counseling, and additional information. Even for those well-steeped in higher education, the process is often confusing and fragmented. It is the college’s responsibility to keep the student moving through the steps.
A Fresh Approach to Applicants in Higher Education
Enrollment leaders can increase the management of the entire student enrollment process by actively tracking student progress across the entire enrollment funnel, especially those steps occurring outside the direct control of the admissions office. Many (and sometimes most) essential matriculation steps fall beyond the admissions office’s direct control. Admissions is typically responsible for recruiting, processing applications, and gathering transcripts. While these responsibilities may be well-executed, bottlenecks in areas like housing, advising, or financial aid can cause students to drop out entirely.
Enrollment leaders don’t have to control every critical campus step to influence it. Enrollment leaders can track metrics across all critical enrollment areas and bring key stakeholders into ongoing discussions about progress, challenges, and opportunities for improvement.
A college might have thousands of qualified applicants, but if there is no housing, financial aid, or advising available, students won’t come. Enrollment leaders can work with other stakeholders to set goals for every step: applications, transcripts, ISIRs, deposits, housing applications, orientation attendance, and beyond, then track and refine processes through cross-campus collaboration.
Focus on yield is more important than ever. New recruitment efforts alone will not sustain or grow enrollment for most institutions. Better yields mean larger incoming classes and happier, more supported students who feel valued.
For more insights, download the toolkit and assess your current process: Toolkit: Increasing Enrollment Through Inter-Office Coordination and Student Support
Trellis Strategies offers a one-day Enrollment Tracker workshop and tool to help enrollment leaders set campus-wide goals for every stage of the enrollment process, focusing on maximizing yield. To learn more, visit our Enrollment Solutions page or contact us for a one-on-one consultation.